The Future of Screenwriting, a dialogue with quotes
from a Producer.
“Routine interest movies will die.”
No kind of movie will die. A silent film won an Oscar only a
year or so ago. There will always be a market for everything. Whether it's
YouTube channels or indie theaters. If anything the fracturing of the market,
the compartmentalizing of media markets and types helps people find what they
want and buy more of it. If it's not commercially viable on a global scale, it
can be scaled down for a specific market or platform, and for instance be used
to generate ad revenue on your YouTube channel.
“Theatrical movies will become almost exclusively
franchise, brand, and thereby commerce driven.”
I think it's fair to say +$100 million dollar films will (or
already have) become largely franchise, established IP, or brand driven. But
there will always be that amazing spec script that someone finds and is able to
raise capital to make, and a major distributor is willing to market and sell.
That will never go away.
No one really knows the future, but my opinion is that the
way studio's are building their slates now, is most likely how it will be for a
while.
There will always be the franchise/brand pics in summer, the
prestige Oscar pics like "Argo" or "Silver Linings
Playbook", and the indie that gets global distribution.
“The concept of the movie star will continue to mean
less and less until we don't have any left.”
I think the opposite of this actually the truth. Movie stars
have seen themselves become increasing more in demand globally and more
powerful than ever. Having millions of Twitter followers is powerful and
meaningful. Investing in tech start-ups, getting into politics, movie stars are
more powerful and (world stage) prominent than ever.
The concept of the movie star is also integral the the
Hollywood machine. Hollywood loves movie/media stars, loves to make them, hate
them, and use them to sell products, magazines and movies. I don't see the
movie star ever going away or diminishing at all.
“The next evolution of TV (i.e. Netflix Original
Programming) will drive the next wave of artistic integrity and push our industry
forward.”
I think
the HBO and Netflix model is pushing the industry forward in many ways. Because
the subscription model isn't ratings or advertising driven it allows for the
creation of content that is able to take creative risks and pursue
"artistic integrity". But there are many different forms of artistic
integrity, 3-D for example, that are also pushing the industry forward. The
attractiveness of TV is greatly increased by the proliferation of mobile
devices, platforms and digital distribution, which create more ways to generate
income from content over the long haul, which allow for more risk. But I would
not write off films and do not believe that theatrical films cannot also
benefit from the expansion of ways to consume content. I also see the trend of
TV to movies and movies to TV shows as only just beginning to catch on, which
allows for TV and movies to drive each other forward creatively and
financially.
If you believe that "nobody know anything" then it
is possible that the people that claim "nobody knows anything" are
incorrect or know nothing, and therefore somebody does know something. I
believe that corporations/studios are inclined to believe that even their
executives don't know enough to bank on, which is why the big media
corporations are turning to computers, metrics, algorithms and 'big data' to
tell them something/anything. What the data can tell them is that the market
for a film/TV/media project is worth a certain amount and the investment should
be tailored accordingly. Computers help corporations mitigate risk and identify
markets in a way no person can, which in the long run will actually help
Hollywood make more profits and spend money more wisely, making it possible to
take more creative risks because they are on stronger financial footing.
A computer can't tell you if a movie is good or bad, but it
can certainly tell you which demographics are responding to it, and if further
development/investment is worth while. Gone are the days of $100 million dollar
investments based on what a few people think will sell. Studios want more
assurances than that in the climate of Hollywood today, because maybe those
people greenlighting the spending of $100 million on a film don't know
anything. As I see it, the creation of high quality content will always be a
sound investment, because IP can generate income for decades, and can be
leveraged to get more money from transmission fees or pay subscription
services. Think of how AMC used 'Mad Men' to negotiate higher retransmission
fees because satellite and cable companies know they have to pay it in order to
not upset the millions who watch the show, and would be furious if the channel
was dropped from the service.
This brings it back to Netflix/HBO which can spend $100
million on something that may be a risk, but that helps them build their brand,
and keep exclusive content behind their pay wall that will help them retain
subscribers, and keep the money coming in.
It's an exciting time to be a writer, but writers need to be
more versatile, more creative, and more business and tech savvy to compete in
the global media market that is Hollywood -- or at least have a team that helps
you compete. To succeed you need to find that balance of Art and Business; or
"artistic integrity" and commercial viability. There is less easy
money floating around post 2008, but more opportunity than ever for creative
entrepreneurs in the digital age.
