2011

What will happen in Hollywood in 2011?

The rich will get richer, but the spec (and media biz) is changed; if you don't see that, it will be far harder to crack for you in 2011 than it was in 2010. It's not going to get simpler, or go back to the way it was, that is for certain...

The rules have changed, they players have changed and the game has changed. Selling "projects" -- don't get stuck on spec screenplays, that is so 'first 10' as I call the 2000-2010 decade -- or getting them made and distributed is actually getting easier. It's getting $100 million cash to make a movie that has gotten harder in the last 5 years. This could be changing.

In my mind, social media, "crowd sourcing" and other tech driven innovations are going to make raising capital a whole lot different; in some ways, for some people/projects, a whole lot easier.

Once the studio distribution model for +$100 million Features is figured out, -- 2010 brought big changes to it -- and the Major studios find a method that works, the cash and economy of the film biz will kick into gear. 2011 will likely give rise to distribution models that can work for more than just "known brands".

2009 & 2010 was the virtual implosion of the old studio model:

Theater > DVD > HBO > TV

I'm not going to try and map what I think the new model looks like, but obviously the INTERNET has shattered the old model for good.

2011 -- as I see it -- will be about rebuilding. Better, bigger, faster, global, and more efficient means of distribution. This will free up money and a "New Wave" of cinema will be born.

That is my predictions for 2011 and 2012.